Lightning Rod to strike at Colonial - Crowne Plaza Invitational

Posted by Bryan N

Lightning Rod to strike at Colonial - Crowne Plaza Invitational

I was hoping for a better price but I still can't ignore Rodney Pampling this week. He has a record on this course that would be hard for anyone to beat and even though there has been 200yards added this year it shouldnt bother him. He is coming off the back of a -5 final round last week so confidence should be up going to a place where he feels so comfortabe.

-0.75pts E/W Rodney Pampling @ 45/1 (general)

-0.5pts E/W Tim Clark @ 35/1 (general) another who loves this track and fresh off a 9th place finish at the players
-15pts lay @ 1.4 (exchanges) liability - 6pts
edited @ 10.30pm may 31st 2009

-0.5pts E/W Ted Purdy @ 125/1 (sportingbet, boylesports) The man with the 'sexiest swing on tour' is coming alive recently and that's a very tempting price. Top 5 finish is well within his reach here.

-0.5pt E/W David Toms @ 33/1 (general) His accurate play and solid putting will stand him in good stead once again on a course he loves

-1.25pts Mathew Goggin top 20 finish @ 6/1 (skybet) Goggin is on the radar for a win this year never mind just a top 20 but his lack of current form has made me overlook him for an E/W this week but his driving ability and putting make 6/1 top value for a top 20.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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