Lightning Rod to strike at Colonial - Crowne Plaza Invitational

I was hoping for a better price but I still can't ignore Rodney Pampling this week. He has a record on this course that would be hard for anyone to beat and even though there has been 200yards added this year it shouldnt bother him. He is coming off the back of a -5 final round last week so confidence should be up going to a place where he feels so comfortabe.

-0.75pts E/W Rodney Pampling @ 45/1 (general)

-0.5pts E/W Tim Clark @ 35/1 (general) another who loves this track and fresh off a 9th place finish at the players
-15pts lay @ 1.4 (exchanges) liability - 6pts
edited @ 10.30pm may 31st 2009

-0.5pts E/W Ted Purdy @ 125/1 (sportingbet, boylesports) The man with the 'sexiest swing on tour' is coming alive recently and that's a very tempting price. Top 5 finish is well within his reach here.

-0.5pt E/W David Toms @ 33/1 (general) His accurate play and solid putting will stand him in good stead once again on a course he loves

-1.25pts Mathew Goggin top 20 finish @ 6/1 (skybet) Goggin is on the radar for a win this year never mind just a top 20 but his lack of current form has made me overlook him for an E/W this week but his driving ability and putting make 6/1 top value for a top 20.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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