Football Season Finale - Can Chelsea do It Again?

Last week of the season around Europe with cups, titles and status still to be decided. It might be the last week but there's plenty of value to be found. Werder entertain Leverkusen in the VFB Pokal final, chelsea look to finish off the season on a high note against Everton and 5 teams in La Liga are all still struggling for their lives.

-2pts Patrik Helmes anytime scorer vs Werder Bremen @ 2/1 (coral) Bremen have 1 of the loosest defenses in Germany. Helmes will exploit them on the counter.

-1.5pts spread(buy)Bremen vs Leverkusen goals @ 2.9(sportingindex) could be high scoring affair

-2pts Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet) win vs Bremen @ 6/5 (general) very good bet

-1.25pts Arturo Vidal anytime scorer vs Bremen @ 9/1 (coral)was sent off last week and not sure if the suspension is in place yet but if he starts, that's an absolutely ridiculous price against a porous Bremen defense.
edited @ 17.16 30th may 2009

-1.5ptspts wincast - Didier Drogba to score/Chelsea to win FA cup final @ 13/5 (bluesquare) way overpriced

-1pt Frank Lampard man of the match vs Everton @ 6/1
-0.5pts John Terry Man of the match vs Everton @ 18/1
1 of the 2 very likely barring a masterclass from 1 of the attackers or an unlikely Everton win

-1pt Frank Lampard to score from outside box vs everton @ 7/1 (paddypower) Half his goals come from outside. I'd take that price in any game

-1pt Marseille to claim French Title @ 9/1 (exchanges) not as cut and dried as the bookmakers think. They will beat Renne and with Caen fighting for their lives, Bordeaux will have their work cut out to get something there

-3pts fourfold:
Atletico win vs Almeria
Valencia win vs Bilbao
Rangers win vs Falkirk
Marseille win vs Rennes

@3.18 (betfair) not usually a multiple backer but 3 of those teams have nothing to play for while the they are massive games for the home teams in terms of European qualification and a title win. Rangers should dispose of Falkirk quite easily.

last edited @ 2.00pm 30th may 2009

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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