2011 VALERO TEXAS OPEN PICKS

Valero Texas Open Picks

Please Note: Trading the golf is the safest and best way to make money long term, you can see my golf trading section/strategy here if betting on the Valero Texas Open

Pick 1: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 25/1 (general) Previous 50/1 winner for Nic's Picks has moved up a couple of levels in the past year or so and returned to form at the Masters last week. Great driver of the golf ball and game could suit the 7,500 yard plus AT&T track at the Valero Texas Open.

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Pick 2: Ryan Palmer E/W @ 33/1 (general) Streaky Palmer came up under the radar for a top 10 finish at the Masters and when on form can compete at the highest level. Texas native is a decent value price at the Valero Texas Open this week....

Pick 3: Angel Cabrera E/W @ 40/1 (general) Very much over priced on the back of a Masters week where he was at the top end of the driving stats and also had his putter working. The short stick is the problem area for Cabrera but if he continues where he left off last week, he should feature at the Valero Texas Open. Big hitter will have an advantage on the lengthy AT & T course.

Pick 4: Vaughn Taylor E/W @ 80/1 (Skybet) Taylor in good form this season so far and 1 of the better players in the field in terms of quality. Price is way too big. Excellent putter.

Valero Texas Open Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: John Rollins E/W @ 110/1 (Bet365) I was listening to Rollins in a recent interview where he claimed he was playing well but the results were not showing and that he felt his season was about to kick off. Long and straight off the tee and a good long par 3 player which could be key to getting round at the Valero Texas Open this week with par 3's in excess of 200 yards.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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